Is The U.S. Dollar Topping? what is next? /Aussie,Euro Surges Vs USD and etc

A tentative bottom in action for the U.S. economy

After having plunged for many months, growth appears to have found a bottom in the United States. Some banks are beginning to lower credit standards on businesses and commercial real estate loans, as few key indicators start the manifest a slight better picture. A milder scenario might anticipate a tentative stabilization for the U.S. economy that must be confirmed over the course of the year. The real estate market is leading the way, but other sectors are beginning the move. For the second consecutive month, pending home sales rose in March 3.2%, as construction spending moved up 0.3% for the first time in five straight months. In effect, despite staying below the benchmark of 50 for the fifth straight month, the ISM non-manufacturing index rose to the highest level since October of last year and reached 43.7 in April (40.0 expected) from 42.2 in March. New orders climbed to 47, while employment moved up to 37 from 32.3.


Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media.

Growth improving and the U.S. Dollar Declining?

he U.S. dollar to decline further

The economy is on the move again in the United States. The housing market appears to be designing a bottom at current levels, industry’s output is increasing and consumer confidence is improving. In April, new home sales moved up 1,000 to 352,000 units from March’s 351,000. Inventories declined 13,000 month-on- month and are down 160,000 year-on-year and In would take 10.1 months to buy all the new homes in storage, down from 10.6 months in March and 12.4 months in January. In reality, the economic growth of the past ten years will not be repeated in the foreseeable future. However, improvements could be seeing in the final part of this year supported by the monetary and fiscal incentives. The process is challenging, but even a moderate growth would help mitigate the huge budget deficit, albeit an increase of inflation is inevitable.


Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international

ECB: What is Next?

Despite the unstable economic environment, the worst might be over in the United States and in Europe. As a result, rates should remain on hold for some time and then climb again along with the economic expansion. The U.S. dollar is moving away from the lows of the past days, but the medium term trend remains bearish for now.

Aussie, Euro Surges vs USD

The dollar tumbled sharply against the Aussie, falling past the 0.80-handle for the first time since October. The greenback also struggled versus the euro, slipping to 1.4168 and the sterling, falling just shy of the 1.62-level. Crude oil extended gains, edging up past the $66 per barrel level while US equity bourses were relatively unchanged on the session.

The economic reports released earlier in the session were mixed, with growth and manufacturing reports deteriorating while a key sentiment survey improved by better than estimates. The preliminary Q1 GDP revealed a larger than expected contraction in economic activity, posting a 5.7% decline compared with a 6.1% decline in the previous quarter. The core PCE prices held steady at 1.5%, while corporate profits reversed a steep 10.7% decline in the previous quarter to improve by 1.1%. The New York NAPM index improved in May to 361.6 from April at 356.0. Meanwhile, the Chicago PMI disappointed in May, falling to 34.9 and missing estimates for an improvement to 42.0 from 40.1 in April. The PMI employment component fell to 25.0 from 31.8, while new orders fell to 37.3 from 42.1.

On an upbeat note, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey beat forecasts for an improvement to 68.0 in May from 65.1 in April, with the final reading edging up to 68.7. The expectations component jumped to 69.4 versus 63.1 a month earlier, while the conditions

GBP Breaks above 1.60

The greenback was mixed in the Wednesday session, slumping sharply against the sterling to a near 7-month low and edging up versus the yen.

Economic data from the US was better than expected earlier today. Existing home sales shot up by 2.9% in April to 4.68 million units, reversing a downwardly revised 3.4% decline in March. Traders will look ahead to data on Thursday, including weekly jobless claims, April durable goods orders and new home sales.



This article contains the following sections:
1:Sterling Rallies

2:Euro Regains Footing

Greenback Rallies Sharply

The greenback reversed previous session’s losses, rallying sharply against the euro by over two big figures to 1.4111 and the sterling by nearly four big figures at 1.6244. US equities bourses pulled back further with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq sliding by over 1.2%, while the S&P 500 lost over 1.8%.

With markets eagerly anticipating the May US labor report due out on Friday, the May ADP private-sector payrolls were worst-than-expected, posting a loss of 532k jobs and exceeding expectations for a loss of 520k jobs from 491 private sector jobs lost previously. April durable goods orders increased by 1.7%, albeit less than the 1.9% increase from March, while factory orders improved by 0.7% from 0.9%. The May non-manufacturing ISM report improved to 44 versus 43.7 a month earlier, remaining beneath the key 50-level though.

Data slated for release on Thursday include weekly jobless claims, Q1 labor costs and non-farm productivity. The key reports will be released on Friday, consisting of the May unemployment rate, which is seen creeping up to 9.2% and the non-farm payrolls reading, expected reveal a 520k job loss from 539k loss of jobs a month earlier.

Dollar Tumbles to ’09 Lows

The greenback slid across the board in the Tuesday session, tumbling to its lowest level of the year against the euro at 1.4321 and a seven month low versus the pound at 1.6590. The dollar remains under pressure amid renewed skepticism over its position as the world’s reserve currency, with comments from Russian President Medvedev reiterating his proposal for a new global currency.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher expressed optimism, saying the Fed has been successful in pulling the economy back from the brink and is beginning to see the results from its efforts to support the credit markets. Although he said the US economy is “getting less worse” with time, he believes it is still “not out of the woods” and expects the recovery to be very slow. He did offer a somewhat upbeat assessment, saying consumer confidence was picking up somewhat and retail sales was no longer plunging. Fisher said the aggressive action adopted by the Fed helped stave off the worse of the US downturn.

The US data released earlier in the session was better than expected. The April pending home sales sharply beat expectations for an increase of 0.5% from the March reading at 3.2%, instead posting highest increase since 2001, advancing by 6.7%.